The limits and perils of gentle communication against vaccine hesitancy: an informational trial
with Leonardo Boncinelli (PI), Ennio Bilancini and Folco Panizza [Working paper]
Winner of the PRIN 2022 grant from the Italian Ministry of Education and the NextEU Generation grant "Bando 30 mesi" at the University of Florence
Part of the EcoHETE project involving several departments at the University of Florence: Statistics (Department PI: Daniele Vignoli), Psychology (Department PI: Christian Tarchi), Political Sciences (Department PI: Laura Solito)
Abstract: As many countries face ageing populations, national healthcare systems are challenged by increasing economic pressures from vaccine-preventable diseases. To contrast vaccine hesitancy, health authorities recommend gentle communication techniques instead of paternalistic approaches in both in-person and less costly digital campaigns. We conduct a factorial survey experiment on a representative sample of 12000 Italians aged 40+ and test whether gentle communication outperforms traditional approaches and other behavioural nudges in a cost-effective video campaign for the flu vaccine. While the perception of informants improves, willingness to vaccinate decreases by 7.4% (3 percentage points), and actual uptake remains unchanged. Causal forests reveal that this inconsistency is not the result of cognitive resistance, but rather of different reactions in non-overlapping groups. The vast majority experiences null behavioral effects. However, while a negligible minority of older, chronically ill participants may react positively, gentle communication backfires by reducing uptake in a possibly larger group with initially lower skepticism.
Innovative learn-by-doing digital education and attitudes towards STEM: an RCT in Italian high schools
with Martina Ferracane, Adriano De Falco and Giovanni Abbiati [Working paper]
Abstract: We conducted a randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of creative STEM activities on the propensity to enrol in a STEM university course and career aspirations on a sample of 710 high school students in Italy. The activities covered courses on 3D printing, laser cutting, and programming, and were taught by FabLabs, non-profit digital fabrication laboratories with an innovative pedagogical approach grounded in learn-by-doing, problem-solving skills, and creativity. Participation in the activities was voluntary, but counted for credit. We find that access to these courses increased students’ intentions to pursue STEM majors at university (6 p.p., +17%) and STEM careers (7.4 p.p., +40%), possibly through to an increased STEM self-efficacy (7.3 p.p., +22%), namely students’ beliefs in their ability to pursue STEM studies.
Abstract: I investigate the long-term effects of theocracy on political preferences and religiosity, exploiting a river that separated the theocratic Papal States from secular states for three centuries. To disentangle the effect of theocracy from other confounders, I propose a novel extension to geographic regression discontinuity designs, the Difference-in-Geographic Discontinuities (DIG). While religiosity and political preferences descriptively differ discontinuously at the river, the causal effect of theocracy is null. Using existing and novel datasets spanning eight centuries, I suggest that pre-existing inheritance norms affected religiosity and political preferences by increasing collectivism and social capital, thereby neutralizing the impact of theocratic institutions.
Gender Quotas in Municipal Executives: reallocating public spending in Italy
Revisions Requested by International Tax and Public Finance
with Flavia Cavallini and Olivia Masi [Working paper]
Abstract: This study investigates the effect of increasing female representation in executive positions within local governments on municipal expenditures. We leverage a 2014 reform in Italy that mandated 40% gender quotas in the executive councils of municipalities with more than 3,000 residents. To isolate the impact of gender quotas from other policies active at the same population cutoff, we employ a difference-in-discontinuities approach. We document that the policy effectively increases female representation in local governments, and descriptively it brings younger, less experienced female politicians into the executive councils. Our findings reveal that the increase in female executives shifts resources away from culture toward schooling, with the budget share allocated to preschools and schools rising by 23% and 10%, respectively, and the one to culture decreasing by 37%. This indicates that including women in executive roles can influence the allocation of municipal resources.
Emotional Susceptibility to Public Scrutiny and Vaccine Hesitancy: an Exploratory Experimental Analysis
Revisions Requested by the Italian Economic Journal
with Christine Alamaa
Abstract: This paper explores the understudied link between self-consciousness and vaccine scepticism, combining an experimental approach with causal forests to estimate individual treatment effects. Leveraging data from a lab experiment with Italian university students, we find that individuals who are more easily induced to self-conscious responses (e.g., feeling shame or embarrassment) tend to hold stronger vaccine misbeliefs. Rather than a causal effect of self-consciousness elicitation on vaccine attitudes, our results highlight a correlation between pre-treatment attitudes and susceptibility to self-conscious emotions. This underlines the importance of policy interventions aimed at effective public health communication, since more sceptical individuals may avoid discussing with health professionals or develop self-conscious emotions as the result of these discussions, further exacerbating their vaccine hesitancy.
The Age of Mass Migrations and the lifespan of people with disabilities: Northern Sweden (1894-1919)
with Nicoletta Balbo, Danilo Bolano, Johan Junkka and Lotta Vikström
Abstract: This paper studies the causal effect of the Age of Mass Migrations in Sweden (1894-1913) on the lifespan of people with disabilities (PWD). We leverage unique population data that record disabilities by type and focus on PWD born between 1914 and 1919, after WWI unexpectedly disrupted mass migrations but before the introduction of Socialist welfare policies. PWD born in villages that experienced higher rates of cumulative outmigrations lived significantly longer, 3 years on average. The effect is driven by people with intellectual and psychiatric disabilities who were institutionalized more, in a period when these disabilities often implied isolation and mistreatment. We show that mass migrations did not act by enriching those who stayed and suggest that, consistent with historical evidence, the causal effect is due to selected outmigration, which increased collectivism, political participation, and demand for proto-welfare services, including healthcare.
Networks, Diversity, and Migrants' Success: Evidence from the Pontine Marshes, 1932-1941
with Frédéric Docquier, Fabio Mariani and Martin Fernandez Sanchez
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of common origin networks and diversity on migrants' economic performance, exploiting the natural experiment of the reclamation and resettlement of the Pontine Marshes in Italy (1932-1941). Approximately 4000 families were randomly assigned a plot under sharecropping and offered the option to redeem the land in 1941. Using microdata on the universe of settlers, we find that the presence of neighbors from the same province of origin improved the chances of remaining in the Pontine Marshes until 1941 and eventually buying the land. These networks supported economic success by enhancing productivity through direct help, although we also suggest a direct role of social amenities. On the other hand, neighbors' diversity played a more limited role and benefited productivity through agricultural skill transferability, as long as same-origin networks were not reduced.
The spillovers of child disability on peers' education and university choice
with Massimo Anelli, Nicoletta Balbo and Sofia Sierra Vásquez
Nudging responsible antibiotics prescription: a field experiment
with Ennio Bilancini, Tommaso Bellandi, Gustavo Cevolani, and Folco Panizza
State: RCT in progress
Religion and Resilience: Protestantism, Catholicism, and Epidemic Mortality, 1400–1900
with Felix Schaff
Abstract: We study the effect of framing informational campaigns scientifically or emotionally on the vaccination uptake of recipients with different educational backgrounds. 7616 Swedish mothers stratified by education received a leaflet on their children's upcoming HPV vaccination opportunity. The leaflet’s framing was randomized between emotional and scientific, whereas the content remained uniform; control units received an uninformative reminder of the same length. We find substantial heterogeneity by educational background. Mothers with compulsory schooling exposed to scientific framing increased their uptake by 5.7 percentage points (7.25%). The effect was driven by less skeptical mothers with little previous HPV knowledge and higher engagement with the materials. Emotional framing decreased uptake by 4.8 percentage points (5.41%) among high school-educated mothers who read more superficially and were more hesitant at baseline.
Ballerini, V., Dominici, A., Ferracane, M. F., Menchetti, F., & Noirjean, S. (2024). Stimulating creativity and grit of high school students with creative STEM activities: an RCT with noncompliance. Quality & Quantity.
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