Abstract: I investigate the long-term effects of theocracy on political preferences and religiosity, exploiting a river that separated the theocratic Papal States from secular states for three centuries. To disentangle the effect of theocracy from other confounders, I propose a novel extension to geographic regression discontinuity designs, the Difference-in-Geographic Discontinuities (DIG). While religiosity and political preferences descriptively differ discontinuously at the river, the causal effect of theocracy is null. Using existing and novel datasets spanning eight centuries, I suggest that pre-existing inheritance norms affected religiosity and political preferences by increasing collectivism and social capital, thereby neutralizing the impact of theocratic institutions.

Abstract: We investigate targeting framed information to recipients’ backgrounds to boost vaccination uptakes. 7616 Swedish mothers stratified by education and immigration background received a leaflet on their children's upcoming HPV vaccination opportunity. The leaflet’s framing was randomized between emotional and scientific, with control units receiving an uninformative extra reminder of the same length. Mothers with compulsory schooling exposed to scientific framing increased their uptake by 5.7 percentage points (7.25\%). The effect was driven by less skeptical mothers with little previous HPV knowledge and higher engagement with the materials. Emotional framing decreased uptake by 4.8 percentage points (5.41\%) among high school-educated mothers who read more superficially and were more hesitant at baseline.

Abstract: Motivational Interviewing (MI) is a gentle communication technique effective in doctor-patient interactions and is now recommended by the WHO to reduce vaccine hesitancy. Nevertheless, it entails high training and implementation costs. We test MI in the context of a flu vaccine video informational campaign by conducting a survey experiment on a representative sample of 8310 Italians aged above 40. MI significantly improves the informant's perception in line with theory. However, it reduces willingness to vaccinate ($-7.4\%$, equivalent to approximately 3 p.p.) and does not impact actual vaccination behavior. Causal forest analyses also reveal that despite an overall null behavioral effect, a minority who increase vaccination uptake after MI is selected in terms of worse health status, older age, and higher distrust of vaccines. Conversely, MI decreases the uptake of a minority with more vaccine-compliant positions at baseline. While MI can be helpful for specific groups who might be more used to interacting with health professionals, it could backfire when addressed to the general population: this suggests caution in pushing MI as a large-scale policy. 

Abstract: This study investigates the effect of increasing female representation in executive positions within local governments on municipal expenditures and the provision of public social services. We leverage a 2014 reform in Italy that mandated 40\% gender quotas in the executive councils of municipalities with more than 3000 inhabitants. Introducing quotas for executives represents a novel and interesting setting, as these figures might have more influence over administration and budgeting than other council members. To isolate the impact of gender quotas from other policies active at the same population cutoff, we employ a difference-in-discontinuities approach. Our findings reveal that the policy effectively increases female representation in local governments, aligning with its objectives. Moreover, the increase in female executives shifts the composition of expenditures in favor of schools, with the budget share allocated to preschools and schools rising by 23% and 10%, respectively. This indicates that including women in executive roles can influence the allocation of municipal resources.

Abstract:  This paper studies the causal effect of the age of mass migrations in Sweden (1894-1913) on the lifespan of people with disabilities (PWD). Leveraging unique population data that record disabilities by type, we find that PWD born until 1919 in villages that experienced higher rates of cumulative outmigrations lived significantly longer, 3 years on average. The effect is driven by people with intellectual and psychiatric disabilities who were institutionalized more, in a period when these disabilities often implied isolation and mistreatment. We show that mass migrations did not act by enriching those who stayed and suggest that, consistent with historical evidence, the causal effect is due to selected outmigration, which increased collectivism, political participation, and demand for proto-welfare services, including healthcare. 

Abstract: Creativity and grit are widely recognized as vital components for the success and prosperity of individuals, even more so for younger people who will have to deal with the complex challenges connected to the digital era. Yet, whether these skills can be learnt or are innate traits is still subject to debate, which is further complicated by the difficulty of defining and, in turn, assessing these concepts. In this study, we challenge the idea that creativity and grit cannot be learnt and show that creative pedagogy activities, such as those offered by FabLabs, are powerful tools to enhance these non-cognitive skills. We conduct a pilot randomized controlled trial in which 710 students from five Italian high schools are randomly assigned to creative STEM courses. The courses are delivered by FabLabs, small-scale workshops that offer access to tools for digital fabrication and employ a hands-on pedagogical approach expected to impact students' creativity and grit positively. Assignment to the courses is at the class level: only students in classes randomly selected to join the Fablab activities can participate, and they may decide whether to enrol or not on a voluntary basis. We address noncompliance by adopting an instrumental variable approach. We use two modalities to measure creativity: a self-assessment through the Short Scale of Creative Self and an assessment made by an independent expert using an index of creativity developed by the authors. While the effect on self-assessed creativity is not significant, results show that the external, independent assessment of students' creativity can capture a significant effect of Fablabs' courses. It also emerges that FabLab activities have a positive significant effect on students' grit, measured through the Duckworth scale. The encouraging results obtained for a relatively small sample of students should prompt a replication of the experiment on a broader scale.  

Abstract: To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer five original research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from 2 separate large samples (total N > 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete 1 version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: Materials from different teams rendered statistically significant effects in opposite directions for 4 of 5 hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = −0.37 to + 0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for 2 hypotheses and a lack of support for 3 hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to the skill of the research team in designing materials, whereas considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.